Mexico HVAC Market

Mexico HVAC Market Overview:

The Mexico HVAC market size reached USD 5,304.55 Million in 2024. Looking forward, IMARC Group expects the market to reach USD 20,440.62 Million by ​2033​, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 16.17% during 2025-2033. The market is driven by expanding commercial infrastructure and the rising demand for energy-efficient systems. Also, growing industrial manufacturing and the adoption of precision-controlled HVACs are fueling system innovation. Additionally, climate variability across regions reinforces demand for adaptive, cost-effective temperature control. Investments in green buildings, government support for energy efficiency, and nearshoring-induced manufacturing expansion are further augmenting the Mexico HVAC market share.

Mexico HVAC Market Trends:

Industrialization and Growing Manufacturing Output

Mexico’s ascent as a competitive manufacturing and export hub, particularly under the influence of nearshoring trends, has intensified the demand for reliable HVAC systems across various industrial verticals. Facilities in sectors such as automotive, electronics, food processing, and pharmaceuticals require climate control solutions to safeguard equipment functionality, preserve product integrity, and maintain operational safety. Manufacturers are increasingly deploying specialized HVAC systems tailored to industrial environments, including clean rooms and high-temperature production zones. The emphasis on precision control, along with regulatory compliance for worker safety and product quality, is driving industrial users to shift toward systems offering long-term efficiency, adaptability to high-load environments, and low maintenance requirements. Additionally, government efforts to attract global supply chains through fiscal incentives and policy reforms have led to the expansion of industrial parks and logistics zones.

As per recent analysis reports, approximately 40% of commercial HVAC systems sold by major U.S. manufacturers, including Trane, Carrier, Johnson Controls, and Lennox, are produced in Mexico and benefit from tariff protection under the USMCA. This production shift insulates the Mexico HVAC sector from the steep import tariffs levied on goods from China (up to 104%) and other Asian countries such as Japan (24%), South Korea (25%), Taiwan (32%), and Vietnam (46%). As U.S. firms pivot manufacturing toward Mexico to maintain cost efficiency, the policy landscape continues to bolster Mexico HVAC market growth. These developments necessitate climate systems designed for round-the-clock operations and temperature-sensitive processes. Notably, multi-zone HVAC installations and integrated air purification systems are gaining preference in line with sector-specific quality assurance norms. In this context, the convergence of manufacturing modernization, policy support, and system innovation has significantly enhanced HVAC relevance across industrial operations throughout Mexico.

Expanding Commercial Real Estate and Infrastructure Developments

The increasing number of commercial infrastructure projects across urban centers in Mexico is creating a sustained demand for heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems. Office complexes, hospitality spaces, retail environments, and mixed-use developments are prioritizing energy-efficient HVAC technologies to meet both comfort requirements and regulatory benchmarks. Growing foreign investments in real estate and heightened activity in Mexico’s construction sector, particularly in the post-pandemic recovery period, have compelled developers to adopt modern HVAC solutions that support environmental certifications and operational efficiency. Moreover, smart HVAC integrations, including remote monitoring and automated climate control, are witnessing increased incorporation in new commercial builds. While residential applications remain relevant, commercial demand offers a higher rate of system upgrades and new installations, particularly in high-density economic zones.

Cross-sector support for green building norms and state incentives for energy optimization are further shaping the procurement behavior of infrastructure stakeholders. The cumulative effects of these real estate trends have positioned HVAC systems as foundational to structural planning and indoor climate management strategies. On June 12, 2024, Alliance Air, a subsidiary of Daikin Applied, announced a USD 121 Million investment to construct a 460,000-square-foot energy-efficient HVAC manufacturing facility in Tijuana, Mexico. The new plant is projected to generate over 1,150 permanent jobs and will focus on delivering sustainable cooling solutions for North America’s rapidly growing data center market. This expansion reinforces Mexico as a strategic production hub for next-gen, energy-efficient systems. As the urban footprint of cities such as Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey expands, so does the importance of scalable, adaptive HVAC infrastructure. This ongoing transformation plays a key role in the expansion of the market as efficient temperature control becomes central to commercial competitiveness.

Mexico HVAC Market Segmentation:

IMARC Group provides an analysis of the key trends in each segment of the market, along with forecasts at the country and regional levels for ​2025-2033​. Our report has categorized the market based on product type and end user.

Product Type Insights:

• Direct Expansion Systems
• Central Air Conditioning Systems

The report has provided a detailed breakup and analysis of the market based on the product type. This includes direct expansion systems and central air conditioning systems.

End User Insights:

• Residential
• Commercial

The report has provided a detailed breakup and analysis of the market based on the end user. This includes residential and commercial.

Regional Insights:

• Northern Mexico
• Central Mexico
• Southern Mexico
• Others

The report has provided a comprehensive analysis of all major regional markets. This includes Northern Mexico, Central Mexico, Southern Mexico, and others.

Competitive Landscape:

The market research report has also provided a comprehensive analysis of the competitive landscape. Competitive analysis such as market structure, key player positioning, top winning strategies, competitive dashboard, and company evaluation quadrant has been covered in the report. Also, detailed profiles of all major companies have been provided.

Mexico HVAC Market News:

• On January 22, 2024, LG Electronics inaugurated a new scroll compressor production line in Monterrey, Nuevo León to strengthen regional HVAC manufacturing and address North American supply chain vulnerabilities. The new line will produce Gen 3 Scroll Compressors featuring low-GWP refrigerants, supporting upcoming 2025 environmental regulations and boosting LG's sustainability profile. This strategic investment enhances local capabilities and reinforces Mexico’s role in eco-conscious compressor manufacturing.

Mexico HVAC Market Report Coverage:

Key Questions Answered in This Report:

• How has the Mexico HVAC market performed so far and how will it perform in the coming years?
• What is the breakup of the Mexico HVAC market on the basis of product type?
• What is the breakup of the Mexico HVAC market on the basis of end user?
• What is the breakup of the Mexico HVAC market on the basis of region?
• What are the various stages in the value chain of the Mexico HVAC market? 
• What are the key driving factors and challenges in the Mexico HVAC market?
• What is the structure of the Mexico HVAC market and who are the key players?
• What is the degree of competition in the Mexico HVAC market? 

Key Benefits for Stakeholders:

• IMARC’s industry report offers a comprehensive quantitative analysis of various market segments, historical and current market trends, market forecasts, and dynamics of the Mexico HVAC market from 2019-2033.
• The research report provides the latest information on the market drivers, challenges, and opportunities in the Mexico HVAC market.
• Porter's five forces analysis assist stakeholders in assessing the impact of new entrants, competitive rivalry, supplier power, buyer power, and the threat of substitution. It helps stakeholders to analyze the level of competition within the Mexico HVAC industry and its attractiveness.
• Competitive landscape allows stakeholders to understand their competitive environment and provides an insight into the current positions of key players in the market.