US Gold Prices Remain Elevated at USD 3,473/OZ, Reflecting Safe-Haven Demand

Gold is a precious metal renowned for its distinctive yellowish luster and outstanding resistance to tarnishing and corrosion. This dense and ductile chemical element is naturally found in its pure form in rock formation, alluvial deposits, and geological veins all around the world. Widely used in the production of gold ornaments, electronic devices, aerospace applications, and dental items, gold is simultaneously used as a resource and a store of value. The price of this commodity is highly vulnerable to investment sentiment and reserves management policies of central authorities.

Global Market Overview:

Globally, the gold industry reached a volume of 3,094.3 Tons in 2025. Market projections indicate steady growth, with the industry expected to reach 3,566.4 Tons by 2034, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.59% from 2026-2034. The market is largely supported by the steady enhancement of gold production capacity across mature mining regions, alongside consistent global jewelry demand across emerging and developed economies. Additionally, gold continues to retain strong investor preference due to its high liquidity, long-term value preservation, and role as a stable asset class. These attributes reinforce its effectiveness in portfolio diversification, particularly during periods of macroeconomic volatility, inflationary pressures, and financial uncertainty globally.

Gold Price Trend Q3 2025:

Regional prices (USD per OZ) and QoQ changes vs Q2 2025:

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What Moved Prices:

• USA: Gold prices climbed to USD 3473/OZ in September as heightened portfolio hedging activity amid economic uncertainty bolstered investment demand. Market participants shifted toward defensive asset allocation strategies, reducing exposure to risk-sensitive instruments. On the supply front, constrained domestic mining production growth combined with consistent import volumes resulted in a tighter market equilibrium, providing additional price support throughout the quarter.
• China: Prices advanced to USD 3020/OZ, underpinned by robust consumer purchasing and steady institutional acquisition activity. The metal retained its attractiveness as a wealth preservation vehicle amid ongoing domestic economic restructuring efforts. Stable regulatory frameworks governing imports facilitated consistent supply inflows to satisfy fabrication and investment requirements, while seasonal ornamental demand and conservative household expenditure patterns encouraged continued accumulation.
• Indonesia: The Indonesian market witnessed price appreciation to USD 3444/OZ, driven by steady domestic consumption coupled with limited supply availability. Although mining operations maintained consistent output levels, logistical bottlenecks hampered distribution efficiency across the archipelago. Investment channel demand strengthened as buyers sought assets offering durable value retention, while the jewelry manufacturing sector maintained reliable offtake throughout the period.
• Japan: Prices rose to USD 3491/OZ, supported by vigorous investment appetite and consistent industrial utilization. Gold maintained its position as a preferred defensive asset class amid cautious economic forecasts prevailing across Japanese markets. Retail investment remained firm, bolstered by the nation's longstanding consumer confidence in precious metals as wealth stores. Balanced supply conditions characterized the quarter, with steady import flows adequately meeting domestic requirements.
• Brazil: Brazilian gold prices strengthened to USD 3556/OZ as solid domestic demand intersected with carefully managed supply conditions. The metal attracted sustained interest as a hedge against financial market turbulence and currency volatility. Mining production remained stable while export volumes were selectively controlled, constraining domestic availability. Both ornamental jewelry demand and investment-oriented purchases contributed to overall market resilience during the quarter.

Drivers Influencing the Market:

Several factors continue to shape gold pricing and market behavior:

• Investment Demand and Safe-Haven Appeal: Growing economic uncertainty and financial market volatility have amplified gold's attractiveness as a portfolio stabilizer. Institutional investors, wealth managers, and retail participants continue allocating capital toward the metal as a hedge against adverse market conditions, supporting sustained price momentum.
• Central Bank Reserve Accumulation: Monetary authorities worldwide continue augmenting their gold holdings as part of reserve diversification strategies. This institutional purchasing activity provides consistent demand support, reducing available market supply and contributing to price floor establishment across major trading centers.
• Currency Dynamics and Dollar Movements: Fluctuations in the U.S. dollar significantly influence gold pricing, as the metal is predominantly traded in dollar terms. Dollar weakness renders gold more affordable for non-dollar buyers, stimulating international demand, while currency volatility in emerging markets drives local safe haven purchasing.
• Jewelry Consumption Patterns: Global jewelry fabrication represents a substantial component of physical gold demand. Consumer purchasing behavior in key markets, seasonal buying patterns, and cultural preferences surrounding gold ornaments directly influence offtake volumes and support underlying price structures.
• Mining Production and Supply Constraints: Global mine output growth faces structural limitations including declining ore grades, extended development timelines for new projects, and regulatory hurdles. These supply-side constraints create favorable price conditions when confronting steady or growing demand from consumption and investment channels.
• Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Uncertainty: Trade disputes, regional conflicts, and political instability amplify risk aversion among investors, channeling capital toward gold as a historically reliable store of value. Elevated geopolitical risk premiums translate directly into enhanced safe-haven demand and price support.
• Interest Rate Environment: Monetary policy decisions by major central banks influence the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Lower interest rates and real yields diminish the relative attractiveness of fixed-income alternatives, encouraging portfolio reallocation toward precious metals.

Recent Highlights & Strategic Developments:

Recent strategic moves within the industry further illustrate evolving dynamics:

• In December 2025, Artemis Gold Inc. received jurisdictional approval for the initiation of an overall development program for phase 2 in the Blackwater Mine, which is located in the center of British Columbia. The expansion will focus on boosting the processing capacity from 8 Mtpa in late 2026 to about 21 Mtpa in late 2028. When phase 2 works are completed, this mine will be capable of producing an average of 500,000 to 525,000 ounces per year for the first decade of its commercial operation.
• In May 2024, Barrick Gold Corporation announced a strategic partnership with Geophysx Jamaica Ltd. for exploration endeavors over 4,000 square kilometers in Jamaican territory. This particular joint effort aims to implement the geographic know-how available in Geophysx in partnership with the exploration know-how available in Barrick for the purposes of searching for new gold and copper discoveries.

Outlook & Strategic Takeaways:

Looking ahead, the gold market is expected to sustain positive momentum, supported by persistent investment demand, ongoing central bank accumulation activity, and stable jewelry consumption. Supply-side constraints and geopolitical risk factors should continue providing structural price support through the forecast period.

To navigate this complex landscape, stakeholders should:

• Monitor regional price differentials regularly to identify procurement optimization opportunities. Significant price variations across geographies may present arbitrage possibilities or favorable sourcing alternatives for physical buyers and fabricators.
• Track central bank purchasing trends as institutional reserve accumulation provides meaningful demand signals. Sustained monetary authority buying can indicate longer-term price support levels and inform strategic inventory positioning decisions.
• Assess currency exposure proactively given gold's inverse relationship with dollar strength. Organizations with significant cross-border gold transactions should evaluate hedging strategies to mitigate exchange rate volatility impacts on procurement costs.
• Monitor geopolitical developments closely as regional conflicts, trade tensions, and political instability can trigger rapid safe-haven demand surges. Maintaining awareness of evolving risk landscapes enables proactive positioning ahead of potential price movements.
• Evaluate supply chain diversification options to mitigate regional supply disruption risks. Establishing relationships with multiple sourcing channels across different geographies provides procurement flexibility and reduces dependency on any single market.
• Track jewelry sector demand indicators as consumer purchasing patterns in major markets influence physical offtake volumes. Seasonal buying trends, cultural occasions, and economic conditions in key consuming regions provide insights into near-term demand dynamics.
• Monitor mining sector developments including new project announcements, production guidance revisions, and operational disruptions. Supply-side changes can materially impact market balances and create both risks and opportunities for market participants.

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